ACUS02 KWNS 040554
SWODY2
SPC AC 040552
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears low
on Thursday, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across
parts of the upper Midwest, New Mexico, and south-central Colorado.
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward
across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening
shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the
central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the
Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains
during the afternoon.
...Parts of the upper Midwest...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of WI and western upper MI. While this convection will likely
tend to weaken with time, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out
early in the period.
As the cold front moves south-southeastward through the day,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Large-scale forcing
and deep-layer flow are forecast to be somewhat stronger near the
upper Midwest portion of the front, in response to the amplifying
upper-level trough. Relatively substantial spread persists among
guidance regarding the extent of moistening/destabilization, though
in general, buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest,
rendering any organized-severe potential uncertain.
With relatively limited low-level moisture, pockets of rather strong
heating/mixing could develop, which may support localized gusty
winds with any stronger storms. If stronger destabilization does
evolve during the afternoon, then isolated hail cannot be ruled out.
At this time, confidence in an organized severe threat remains too
low for probabilities.
...South-central CO into NM...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from south-central CO into NM,
as the weakening shortwave trough moves southeastward across the
region during the afternoon/evening. Effective shear will become
modestly supportive of organized convection (generally 25-30 kt),
but buoyancy may remain rather weak. If adequate instability can be
realized, then some threat for localized hail and strong/severe
gusts could accompany the strongest storms.
..Dean.. 09/04/2024
$$
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