ACUS02 KWNS 030558
SWODY2
SPC AC 030556
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS INTO MUCH OF MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of the central and northern Rockies and Plains into parts of
Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough initially over the Great Basin/Intermountain West
is forecast to move east-southeastward and gradually deamplify on
Wednesday, as it begins to merge with a more prominent upper-level
trough that will cover parts of the Canadian Prairies into the
northern/central Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the
larger trough will likely move across parts of the Dakotas and
Minnesota. A weak surface wave may develop during the afternoon
along a cold front that will extend from parts of MN and the Dakotas
into the central Plains.
...Parts of the northern/central Rockies/Plains into Minnesota...
A large area of at least low-end severe potential may evolve from
parts of the central/northern Rockies/Plains into Minnesota. The
Marginal Risk has been maintained with some minor adjustments;
further refinement to the risk area is likely if areas of relatively
lower or higher threat become evident with time.
Scattered thunderstorms may develop relatively early in the day
across the higher terrain of CO/WY/MT, in association with the
shortwave trough emerging from the Intermountain West. While
low-level moisture will likely remain rather limited, steep midlevel
lapse rates and modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a
few organized multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, as
convection spreads towards the central/northern High Plains.
Isolated strong to severe gusts and hail will be possible. Some
outflow consolidation could support one or more loosely organized
clusters evolving with time, with a threat of strong to locally
severe gusts as storms move eastward into the evening.
Farther northeast, details regarding destabilization and storm
development/evolution from the eastern Dakotas into MN remain
uncertain. Some guidance suggests potential for an embedded
shortwave or MCV to move across the region during the
afternoon/evening, which could aid in isolated storm development
near the front, if sufficient moistening and destabilization can
occur. There will also be some potential for storms to develop
and/or spread into the region from the west during the evening, as
the larger-scale upper trough begins to amplify. Relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear could support
isolated hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms.
..Dean.. 09/03/2024
$$
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