ACUS02 KWNS 270609
SWODY2
SPC AC 270608
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern
Plains.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level short-wave troughing will move across the Great Lakes
region Wednesday, gradually becoming absorbed within the southern
extent of larger-scale troughing moving across eastern Canada. As
such, gradual/steady height falls will occur across the Northeast
through the period. Upstream, a strong upper low will advance
across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain
Region.
At the surface, a cold front should move off the New England coast
early, leaving a trailing, west-to-east boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic
region into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will
move across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas/western
Nebraska with time, ahead of the upper low. Both of these fronts
will focus convective development and some severe risk --
particularly from afternoon onward.
...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity...
Substantial uncertainty persists across the Northeast U.S. in terms
of severe potential on Wednesday, with ongoing convection -- and
possibly some remnant low-end severe risk -- moving across parts of
the Northeast. With the cold front expected to be moving offshore
of New England early, primary severe risk should reside within a
west-to-east corridor near the surface front, extending westward
into the Midwest region. As height falls continue across the
region, episodes of thunderstorm development can be expected within
this corridor through much of the period. Primary risks will be
locally damaging gusts and hail. Beyond this general assessment, a
more detailed evolution remains difficult to discern at this time,
and thus areal adjustments can be expected with subsequent outlooks.
...Northern Plains...
Afternoon destabilization is forecast across the northern Plains
states, ahead of the advancing cold front. As large-scale ascent
increases through late afternoon, isolated storm development is
expected over the western Dakotas. With mid-level southwesterlies
increasing ahead of the trough, atop low-level southeasterlies,
resulting shear will support storm organization -- including
supercells. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the
primary risks.
As a southerly low-level jet develops across the Plains during the
evening, an increase in storm coverage -- including potential for
some evolution toward an MCS -- is expected. As such -- risk for
hail/wind will likely continue through the evening and possibly into
the overnight hours.
..Goss.. 08/27/2024
$$
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