ACUS02 KWNS 210537
SWODY2
SPC AC 210535
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be
possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern
Plains.
...Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level ridge over the central Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley is forecast to move eastward on Thursday, as a shortwave
trough moves through the northern Plains. In association with the
trough, elevated morning thunderstorms appear likely in parts of
North Dakota. As the convective cluster moves eastward into
Minnesota, an axis of moderate instability is expected to develop in
its wake across central and eastern North Dakota. The instability
axis should be located from the Dakotas south-southwestward into
western Nebraska and far western Kansas. During the day, isolated
severe thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the
instability axis. Most locations near the instability axis have 0-6
km shear forecast in the 25 to 35 knot range. This combined with
steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support a marginal severe
threat during the late afternoon. Hail and a few severe gusts will
be possible.
During the evening, the focus is expected to shift southward into
far eastern Colorado and western Kansas, as the low-level jet ramps
up. A small cluster of thunderstorms with severe potential is
expected to develop and move across the central High Plains during
the early to mid evening. Model solutions differ on the exact
location of this cluster, and have widely varying instability
distributions suggesting uncertainty is substantial. For this
reason, Marginal seems to be appropriate category at this time.
..Broyles.. 08/21/2024
$$
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