ACUS02 KWNS 100547
SWODY2
SPC AC 100545
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night
across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South
Dakota.
...Southern/Central Plains into the Black Hills...
Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across parts of OK and
southern KS at the start of the period Sunday morning, generally
along and north of a surface front. This activity will likely be
elevated and tied to warm/moist advection associated with a
southerly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these
thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the day as the
low-level jet weakens. The potential for additional robust
thunderstorm development across this region in the vicinity of the
front Sunday afternoon/evening remains unclear, as large-scale
ascent will be nebulous/weak. While a conditional severe threat
remains apparent, the lack of a convective signal in most guidance
precludes introducing low severe probabilities across the southern
Plains at this time.
Farther north across the central High Plains, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms should develop along and east of a weak surface lee
trough/front. This convection should also be aided by a modestly
enhanced westerly mid-level jet moving eastward from the
northern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains through
Sunday evening. While low-level moisture should remain a bit more
limited with northward extent across the central Plains, sufficient
instability should be present as diurnal heating occurs and somewhat
steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector.
Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with
attendant threat for isolated large hail. But, there is still a fair
amount of uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms could
develop. Some chance for upscale growth into a bowing cluster
appears possible Sunday evening/night across parts of the central
Plains, mainly focused over southern SD into central NE. If this
occurs, then severe wind gusts would become the primary severe
threat. Given the potential severe hail/wind threat, a fairly broad
Marginal Risk has been introduced across parts of the central
Plains.
..Gleason.. 08/10/2024
$$
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