ACUS02 KWNS 060452
SWODY2
SPC AC 060450
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal
Carolinas, and parts of the Front Range into adjacent Great Plains,
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through adjacent
international border area may make some progress into the northern
U.S. Great Plains during this period, while also elongating westward
across British Columbia, between one prominent ridge centered across
the Canadian Northwest Territories and another across the southern
U.S. Great Basin into the southern Great Plains. Downstream,
mid-level heights are generally forecast to rise across much of
Quebec, the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England, as
significant troughing finally begins to shift east of the region.
However, one more significant impulse is forecast to dig
south-southwestward across southern Hudson Bay by late Wednesday
night. Across the Southeast and southern mid- to subtropical
Atlantic, developments remain a bit more unclear. Considerable
spread remains evident concerning west-northwestward development of
the western Atlantic ridge, and its potential influence on what is
currently still forecast to be a tropical storm offshore of the
South Carolina coast at 12Z Wednesday.
...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia...
Due to the slow moving nature of the remnant tropical cyclone and
the uncertainty concerning its track, tornado potential for
Wednesday through Wednesday night remains unclear. However, based
on the current official forecast intensity and track of Debby, low
tornado probabilities may mostly focus near and perhaps just inland
of southern North Carolina coastal areas, as the low-level
circulation center begins to slowly accelerate northeastward and
northward late Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains...
It now appears that stronger boundary-layer destabilization
(including CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon)
will mostly focus within lee surface troughing across parts of
northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska into the Cheyenne Ridge
vicinity. And models seem increasingly suggestive that large-scale
forcing for ascent may support the initiation of storms off the
higher terrain to the west and southwest, into an initially more
strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer.
Aided by strong shear associated with strengthening westerly
mid/upper flow (including 35 to 40+ kt around 500 mb), convection
may tend to grow upscale and organize as surface cold pools
strengthen and consolidate, with potential for further
intensification into Wednesday evening as it progress into the
better instability. Damaging winds and large hail may accompany
this convection, and it is possible that severe probabilities could
be increased in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 08/06/2024
$$
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