AWUS01 KWNH 041815
FFGMPD
FLZ000-050013-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0802
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024
Areas affected...western Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 041813Z - 050013Z
Summary...Tropical Storm Debby continues to organize and spread
robust convection into the western Florida Panhandle. Flash flood
potential continues.
Discussion...Debby has exhibited strengthening across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico today. Additionally, a fetch of robust convection
within its eastern semicircle has expanded eastward to cover much
of the Florida Peninsula roughly from Gainesville south through
Naples and the western Keys. Several areas of 2-4 inch rainfall
totals have been observed, with the highest totals occurring from
Naples north to Fort Myers and Punta Gorda. Radar mosaic imagery
depicts many embedded convective elements streaming
northward/north-northwestward within the overall fetch of
convection, promoting areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates (locally
higher) at times.
The ongoing scenario is expected to continue through the evening
and beyond. Not only is the dominant convective band (located
from near Tampa to Naples) continuing to be maintained with an
abundantly moist/unstable airmass, but additional strong
convection located within confluent low-level flow extending from
the Keys to roughly 70 miles west of Fort Myers will likely stream
into the region from the south and west. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr
rain rates are likely to continue, and another 2-4 inches of
rainfall can be expected across much of the discussion area.
Locally higher amounts remain possible where convective banding is
most focused and somewhat stationary through 00Z.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TAE...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 29928372 29858284 29178181 28018121 26798079
25688090 25378122 25818167 26468218 27048239
27518266 27838283 28498273 28928291 29378328
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