ACUS02 KWNS 310601
SWODY2
SPC AC 310600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWEST
OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest will become
increasingly positively tilted during the day Thursday as it moves
east toward the southern Great Lakes. This trough will
sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface
low will likely accompany this trough, and advance to the southern
Lake Michigan vicinity by 00Z Friday.
...Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
There is decent model agreement in a MCS across central/northern
Illinois on Thursday morning. It remains unclear whether this MCS
will maintain through the morning with the potential for additional
strengthening during the afternoon across Indiana/Ohio or if it will
wane with additional development on its southern flank Thursday
afternoon/evening. Either way, the environment ahead of and south of
this MCS is expected to warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s. This will yield strong to extreme instability. This
instability combined with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear ahead of
the mid-level trough will support a threat for organized storms
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
If storm activity is somewhat limited during the day Thursday across
Indiana and Ohio, some threat should still exist during the evening.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely across northern
Illinois Thursday evening, and if the airmass ahead of this storm
activity has not been overturned, a MCS could develop and track
across Indiana and Ohio during the overnight hours. Despite the
uncertainty in the exact evolution of storms on Thursday, the most
favorable region from east-central Illinois to southwest Ohio seems
like the most likely corridor to be impacted by strong to severe
storms at some point during the convective day on Thursday.
...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic...
A weak to moderately unstable airmass is expected by Thursday
afternoon east of the Appalachians from southern Pennsylvania to
northern North Carolina with greater instability across southern
North Carolina and northern South Carolina. A weak lee trough will
develop across the region which could be a focus for widely
scattered thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, a few
storms may develop through terrain circulations over the mountains
and along the sea-breeze along the Atlantic Coast. Upper-level
forcing remains nebulous and therefore, storm development will
likely be isolated to widely scattered. However, 25 to 30 knots of
shear amid moderate instability will be sufficient for some threat
for hail and damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 07/31/2024
$$
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