ACUS02 KWNS 300603
SWODY2
SPC AC 300601
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to
the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New
England.
...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across
the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost
of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians
and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially
convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the
northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The
strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the
central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak
surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very
moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Temperatures will warm into the 90s to low 100s F in the central
Plains south of a surface low across NE/KS. Where this hot,
deeply-mixed airmass overlaps a slightly cooler and less mixed
airmass across eastern Kansas and Nebraska, very strong to extreme
instability is anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected along the
surface trough from eastern South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle
given the hot airmass and height falls associated with the mid-level
shortwave trough traversing the Plains. The hot, and deeply mixed
boundary layer across Kansas will support a threat for severe wind
gusts. However, more organized storms are anticipated across eastern
Nebraska and South Dakota where moderately strong mid-level flow
(potentially approaching 45-50 knots), overspreads the region. This
will result in shear favorable for supercells capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts initially with upscale growth likely during
the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Overnight
maintenance/intensity of this MCS remains questionable as
upper-level forcing associated with the mid-level trough continues,
while inhibition increases and the low-level jet veers.
...Ohio Valley...
A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere from eastern Missouri to
western Indiana on Wednesday morning. Destabilization is expected to
be rapid with inhibition eroded by mid-morning. This may allow for
some re-intensification of this MCS as it moves into the lower Ohio
Valley and eventually into Tennessee before eventually likely
struggling as low-mid level temperatures increase. In the wake of
this MCS, an outflow could be a focus for isolated thunderstorm
development Wednesday afternoon/evening. The environment would be
favorable for severe weather with moderate to strong instability and
45-50 knots of mid-level flow. However, height rises through the day
will likely keep any storm coverage relatively sparse.
..Bentley.. 07/30/2024
$$
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