FOUS30 KWBC 060815
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024 - 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood guidance.
Bann
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024 - 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024
Rainfall is not expected to exceed flash flood guidance.
Bann
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024 - 12Z Tue Apr 09 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN STATES...
Convection capable of producing heavy to excessive rainfall will
develop later in the day on Monday and persist into the early
morning hours on Tuesday. The flow of moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico will increase as low level flow increases in response to the
approach of an upper level low from the Desert Southwest...and
moisture flux convergence will be maximized as the deepening Gulf
moisture encounters the southern end of a cold front extending from
the Tennessee Valley southwestward towards the upper Texas coast.
Increasing coverage of storms and increasingly intense rainfall
rates are expected due to the upper level divergence ahead of the
approaching upper low atop of an airmass with climbing precipitable
water values. At the same time, precipitable water values in
excess of 1.50 inches start advecting northward in southeast Texas
and southwest Louisiana Monday night/early Tuesday as moisture
transport continues off of the Gulf. There is a decent amount of
north/south placement differences...with the ECMWF being well south
and the GFS continuing its idea from earlier runs about being too
far to scoot the system northward/eastward. Focused a Slight Risk
area where there was best overlap and where there was at least a
modest consensus for 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts through 12Z
Tuesday.
With the risk of excessive rainfall persisting beyond the end of
the Day 3 period, refer to the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Days
4 and 5 from the WPC Medium Range desk.
Bann
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