ACUS02 KWNS 050546
SWODY2
SPC AC 050545
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening.
...Central and Southern Plains...
An upper-level low will move through the central Rockies Saturday
morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The
associated trough will become negatively tilted, moving
northeastward through the central Plains during the day. At the
surface, a low will deepen and move northward across western
Nebraska, as a cold front advances eastward through the central
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to
increase into the 50s F along a narrow corridor from northeast
Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and central Nebraska. Large-scale
ascent will be strong as the trough moves into the central Plains.
This, combined with low-level convergence ahead of the front and
surface heating, will result in the development of a line of strong
thunderstorms along and near the moist axis during the afternoon.
This line will move eastward across the central and southern Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening.
Forecast soundings near the moist axis early Saturday evening
suggest that the storms will be low-topped, and that there will be
enough instability for strong updrafts. MUCAPE is forecast to reach
the 500 to 750 J/kg range from east-central Kansas into central
Nebraska. As the system moves into the central Plains, 0-3 km lapse
are forecast to peak near 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear increasing to
around 80 knots. This should be sufficient for severe gusts with the
stronger parts of the line. In addition, cold temperatures aloft and
steep lapse rates from 850 mb to 600 mb, should support a threat for
isolated large hail. Concerning the potential for a severe threat,
there is still some uncertainty concerning the magnitude.
..Broyles.. 04/05/2024
$$
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